Vulnerability and casualty of an existing urban compound in Lisbon

The proposed research examines seismic vulnerability and consequent losses in Baixa Pombalina, a suburban compound of Lisbon's historic center (Portugal), using an index-based approach specific for unreinforced masonry structures (URM) placed in aggregate conditions. A comprehensive exposure model was developed by combining satellite remote sensing, GIS software, census statistics, historical data, and an external field survey to determine the key features of the identified structural units (S.U.). The vulnerability analysis is conducted using a multi-criteria decision-making technique, MCDM. Specifically, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) have been used. The primary outcomes are provided in terms of damage scenarios, damage probability matrices, fragility curves, and mean damage ratio curves for the examined vulnerability classes. Next, economic losses are calculated in terms of direct economic losses. Finally, the loss estimate is completed by calculating the number of collapsed and unusable structures as well as fatalities and homelessness.

Keywords: Seismic vulnerability, index-based methods, damage estimation, loss estimation; collapsed and unusable buildings, casualties.