Towards a Military Risk Taxonomy: Bridging Risk Science and NATO Doctrine

This paper presents the development of a military risk taxonomy designed to bridge risk science with NATO's planning and decision-making processes. Drawing on qualitative analysis of NATO doctrines, directives, extensive non-participant ethnographic observation and interviews across seven headquarters, the study addresses misalignment between risk management theory and operational application. A taxonomy was developed that classifies risk-related factors into challenges, modifiers, and opportunities, providing a structured framework compatible with existing processes. Practitioner feedback from NATO planning experts provided preliminary support for the taxonomy's conceptual clarity, intuitive logic, and operational relevance, while emphasizing the need for doctrinal integration, linguistic precision. The taxonomy represents a pragmatic synthesis of risk science and professional praxis to enhancing NATO's capacity to recognize and assess risk within complex operational environments. It thus contributes to advancing the practical application of risk science in military planning and decision-making.

Keywords: Doctrine, Risk Management, Taxonomy, NATO.