Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design for Planning Accelerated Life Testing Campaigns on Electronic Equipment

This paper presents a methodology for optimizing Accelerated Life Testing (ALT) to estimate the reliability of novel electronic equipment through Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design (BOED). The methodology consists of seven steps, from failure mode analysis, based on expert knowledge, to posterior parameter estimation, based on test data. Its practical application is demonstrated through a case study concerning a critical railway signaling component, the Balise Transmission Module (BTM). The results reveal that optimal resource allocation strategies are often non-intuitive trade-offs between test duration and the accuracy of reliability estimates.

Keywords: Accelerated Life Tests, Reliability testing, Electronic equipment, Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design, Bayesian Statistics, Design of Experiments.