General morphological analysis for long-term critical infrastructure resilience: a scenario-based framework

The DRUID (Disaster Risk-gUided scenarIo Definition) method is a prospective approach to study the resilience of critical infrastructure against evolving threats such as natural and climate risks. It is structured around four phases. The Problem Definition phase formalizes the research question and collects data across four dimensions - hazards and exposure, absorptive capacity, infrastructure characteristics, and territorial context. The Scenario Building phase uses General Morphological Analysis to develop representative scenarios integrating general context, territorial aspects, disaster risks, and infrastructure considerations. The Resilience Study phase evaluates how risks affect infrastructure throughout its lifespan based on the DROP (Disaster Resilience of Place) and the resilience triangle models. It analyzes interactions between hazards, absorptive capacity, and the performance thresholds. The Problem Resolution phase translates scenarios into practical recommendations for infrastructure planning and management. The method is illustrated through a case study about the evolution of the risk of energy blackout in an insular context. The study models different coupling relationships and their impact on the resilience of essential infrastructures. A specific focus on the second phase is proposed, incorporating the General Morphological Analysis approach to produce prospective scenarios while considering both immediate changes and transitions as well as long-term potential evolution. Through this comprehensive approach, DRUID helps infrastructure managers better understand vulnerability patterns and develop more effective resilience strategies.

Keywords: Prospective Resilience, GMA, Power blackout, island.