Proposal for an Integrated GMA-STAMP Foresight Method to Develop EBIOS RM Scenarios for Anticipating Cybersecurity Risks in the Maritime Sector

The maritime transition, which integrates autonomous vessels and alternative energies while addressing port safety and security issues, raises challenges for long-term risk management. The multiplicity of possible technological, organizational, and regulatory configurations challenges risk analysis approaches based on the extrapolation of historical data and the identification of isolated failures. In this context, a foresight approach becomes necessary to explore the space of possible futures, identify coherent configurations and their associated vulnerabilities, and design robust transition strategies. This paper proposes an original foresight methodological framework articulating General Morphological Analysis (GMA) and the Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP) model to develop prospective scenarios when applying the EBIOS Risk Manager (EBIOS RM) method, in order to systematically analyze the emerging cyber risks of the maritime transition. EBIOS RM addresses cyber risks by combining compliance analysis and scenario development aimed at identifying intentional risks, particularly targeted or sophisticated attacks. The GMA-STAMP coupling for developing EBIOS RM scenarios addresses the dual need to explore uncertainty and apprehend complexity. GMA generates the space of possible configurations, while STAMP enables the modeling of control structures and emerging vulnerabilities. This articulation aims to identify configurations that are both coherent and secure, while revealing potential cybersecurity issues.

Keywords: Technological change, maritime navigation, foresight, EBIOS RM, GMA, STAMP.