Safety and Security Risk Assessment of Dangerous Goods Carriers Approaching Port Areas

The increasing amount of dangerous goods transported by sea creates complex safety and security issues when carriers approach industrial port areas, particularly given the proximity of critical infrastructure and densely populated areas. Conventional risk assessment methodologies in port areas are often based on simplified static models, which are unable to take into account the dynamic nature of port operations or the potential domino effects that may result. In this context, this study aims to develop a real-time risk assessment tool that considers both safety and security events relating to the transport of hazardous substances in port areas. The proposed tool features a dynamic three-dimensional interface that enables the visualisation of risk contours during the ships transit through the port inland waterways, the docking and the handling of hazardous substances from the ships to the land. First, critical areas of the carrier are identified, and potential loss of containments are assessed in terms of both safety-related and security-related scenarios. The credibility of the scenarios following a release (expressed in annual probability) is evaluated for both safety and security events. The consequence evaluation is carried out based on real-time data inputs, such as weather conditions, operating parameters and the position of the carrier, using integral models for the physical effects of fires, explosions, and dispersion. Finally, credibility and consequence are combined, enabling real-time assessment of vulnerability and risk contours. This methodology is then applied to two case studies, representing a touristic and an industrial setting, to demonstrate the potential of the tool to support risk and emergency management.

Keywords: dangerous goods, risk analysis, port areas, real time assessment, 3D analysis, security vulnerability analysis, security risk assessment.