A Novel Mission Reliability Assessment Approach Based on System Performance Simulation under Multi-Mission Profiles

Traditional reliability assessment methods often fail to adequately address the complexities posed by diverse and dynamic mission profiles, thereby limiting their ability to accurately represent system reliability in real-world, variable environments. In response to this challenge, the present study introduces an innovative reliability assessment approach grounded in performance simulation tailored for multi-mission scenarios. Centered on fault analysis, this approach integrates reliability evaluation with high-fidelity system performance simulation in a comprehensive manner. Initially, a performance simulation model is developed using the Modelica language, designed to precisely capture the system's physical characteristics, functional logic, and control strategies. Subsequently, representative mission profiles are delineated, encompassing various mission phases, environmental loads, operational modes, and fault conditions. The performance simulation model is then executed under these diverse mission profiles, generating trajectories that depict the system's performance evolution amid the influences of multi-mission operational conditions and multiple fault modes. Finally, by establishing mission success criteria, the method determines the outcome of each mission simulation, thereby facilitating a quantitative assessment of mission reliability. A case study involving an aero-engine system was performed to validate the proposed method. The findings demonstrate that this approach effectively addresses the shortcomings of conventional reliability assessment techniques and substantially enhances both the accuracy and practical applicability of reliability evaluations for complex systems operating under multi-mission and multi-fault mode scenarios.

Keywords: Reliability assessment, Multi-mission profile, Performance simulation, Modelica language.