Zoonotic health risk assessment and nature-based solutions: a pluridisciplinary decision-support approach applied to dengue disease case study

Nature-based solutions (NbS) for climate change adaptation such as urban forests, sponge wet areas are classically recognized for both their physical capacities and their economic, environmental, social, and cultural co-benefits. However, in some cases, urban NbS may induce risks such as zoonosis emergence. Those potential negative impacts remain largely understudied. This study develops a framework to characterize induced infectious risks. An original multidisciplinary integrated approach associating epidemiology and safety-risk-decision techniques is proposed to assess infectious risk. The methodology is based on a literature review and expert interviews, followed by the formalization of dengue transmission processes and infectious risk definition. Infectious risk is then analyzed using bow-tie and event tree diagrams in collaboration with safety experts, and finally assessed through a multicriteria decision-making model. Preliminary infectious risk rankings are consistent when comparing one Lyon's experimental and one virtual site. Overall, assessment of infectious risks possibly associated with NbS may contribute in a more comprehensive and unbiased perspective to make better decisions about urban NbS implementation.

Keywords: Nature-based solutions, risk analysis, zoonosis, decision-support, One Health approach.