Defining Risk in Agricultural Land Use: A Review of Conceptual Foundations and Analytical Perspectives

There is no single, universally accepted definition of risk. The literature presents a range of interpretations: some define risk in terms of probability or expected outcomes, while others relate it to hazards, uncertainty, or undesirable events. In several cases, risk is treated as a subjective construct, shaped by available information and human judgment. Other studies, however, approach it as an objective condition that exists independently of any observer. When risk is expressed as the combination of hazard, likelihood, and consequence, the likelihood component is often based on historical data or expert estimates. Yet this may not fully reflect changes in environmental or contextual factors, leading to overly cautious or optimistic assessments. In the agricultural sector, interest in risk analysis has grown due to its strong connection to food security and sustainability, as recognized by the Global Food Security Index (GFSI). Despite this, studies of agricultural land use rarely examine the conceptual basis of risk in detail. Therefore, this study examines how risk is defined and conceptualized in the context of agricultural land use, focusing on five types of risk: production, market, financial, institutional, and personal. Using the framework developed by Floris and Montewka (2015) for maritime transportation, the review compares definitions of risk, perspectives, and analytical approaches. The findings indicate significant variation in how risk is interpreted, suggesting that these differences partly explain the uneven effectiveness of risk management and mitigation strategies in agricultural production systems.

Keywords: risk definitions, agricultural risk, land use, review.