A Framework for Monitoring Group Resilience to Enhance Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

Incidents and accidents in various industrial domains have repeatedly revealed the critical role of the human factor alongside the reliability of technical products and systems. For this purpose, Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) methods have been developed, allowing statements about the reliability of human actions. For example, the reliability of an operator in the control room of a nuclear power plant can be assessed, and corresponding measures can be derived to enhance human reliability.
However, these approaches often fall short when applied to activities in which clearly describable human actions cannot be identified. This applies in particular to tasks carried out in research and development projects or to decision-making under incomplete information, such as during early phases of innovation or industrial transformation processes, that is, decision-making under uncertainty. For these early phases of system development, such as conceptualization or planning activities, suitable methods are required to adequately assess human reliability. Approaches relying solely on project management techniques are insufficient, as they typically neglect essential aspects of human information processing.
This paper presents a group-based assessment framework for measuring and evaluating uncertainties related to human factors as an influence on reliability in projects. The method primarily captures cognitive and groupdynamic aspects and provides an additional means of quality assurance by integrating the evaluation into classical or agile project management contexts. The results indicate a reduction of individual cognitive biases over time, while group-dynamic biases tend to increase, highlighting that group-based decision-making does not automatically lead to higher reliability. This approach strengthens not only the development process but also the reliability and safety of the resulting products and systems, enabling a more holistic consideration of the human factor.

Keywords: Human reliability analysis, decision-making, group assessment.