Risk and Resilience Assessment of Inland Waterway Transport Networks

Inland waterway transport constitutes a vital component of the logistics network, connecting suppliers, producers, and end consumers. The identification and assessment of the risks affecting these transport operations is not merely an optional process, but rather a critical condition for the sustainability of the entire supply chain. Disruptions in inland transport processes can trigger cascading effects impacting all subsequent stages of the supply chain. Ensuring the safety, security, and resilience of autonomous inland waterway transport systems is a central objective in advancing sustainable logistics in Europe. Inland waterways represent a key element within multimodal transport chains, yet their operation remains exposed to disruptions arising from various aspects, such as infrastructure failures, congestion, and the increasing complexity introduced by incorporated autonomous technologies. Addressing these vulnerabilities requires analytical methods capable of representing systemic interdependencies and assessing how localised disturbances can compromise overall network performance. Within the framework of the EC-funded Horizon Europe project AUTOFLEX, this study employs network analysis as a quantitative framework to assess the structural robustness and resilience of inland waterway transport operated by autonomous vessels. It investigates how system connectivity evolves as nodes or edges are progressively removed. By modelling ports and AUTOFLEX operational interfaces and locations, the approach enables a systematic exploration of connectivity degradation under both random and targeted disruption scenarios. The results aim to identify critical components, the loss of which could cause fragmentation or reduce network efficiency, thus providing quantitative indicators of vulnerability and resilience. These outcomes will inform risk control and mitigation strategies and guide the prioritisation of redundancy and protection measures, while also supporting the design of resilient operational frameworks for autonomous inland waterway transport. The approach adapts established percolation-based reliability analyses and methods to the context of autonomous and digitally integrated logistics, contributing to a deeper understanding of resilience in future European transport systems.

Keywords: Inland Waterways Transport, autonomous shipping, risk assessment, network analysis, percolation theory..