Developing security of supply in the Swedish district heating sector --- methods, challenges, and needs

Energy supply is a critical societal function, where disruptions can quickly lead to serious consequences for populations, industries, and other societal functions. Ensuring resilience therefore requires not only the ability to withstand interruptions, but also the capacity to adapt and recover from crises. In Sweden, district heating plays a particularly important role, supplying heat to more than half of all heated buildings in urban areas. Against the backdrop of a rapidly deteriorating geopolitical situation in Europe, there is an urgent need to strengthen security of supply, particularly in relation to the increasing risk of armed conflict, including hybrid threats. However, developing security of supply in district heating presents several challenges. Many measures are costly, especially if addressed individually by local actors, and district heating operates in a competitive market where prices are already close to the limits of customer acceptance. At the same time, district heating has been a cornerstone of Sweden's green transition, while alternative heating solutions, such as heat pumps or electric heating, may prove less resilient under future disturbance scenarios that Sweden needs to consider. This paper presents an interview study with Swedish district heating actors, aiming to examine how security of supply is addressed in practice. The study explores the methods currently used, the challenges encountered, and the needs perceived in order to further strengthen security of supply. The results show that security of supply is developed through a range of approaches, including technical measures, organisational practices, and forums for collaboration. Together, these findings provide a basis for improving conditions for local district heating actors to enhance resilience to a broad range of threats while simultaneously pursuing other strategic objectives, such as profitability and sustainability.

Keywords: District heating, security of supply, resilience, practical challenges, civil defence.