Systematic Risk Management and Resilience in Military Supply Chains: A Regression-Based Mediation Study of the Lithuanian Armed Forces

The research focuses on the issue of ensuring effective risk management in the supply chains of the Lithuanian Armed Forces, which are strategically sensitive to a wide spectrum of risks, including economic, political, logistical, and security threats. Disruptions in military supply chains can directly impair the operational capability and readiness of the armed forces, highlighting the necessity for a systematic and scientifically grounded approach to risk identification, assessment, and mitigation. The subject of this study is risk management within the Lithuanian national defence system's supply chains, and the primary objective is to develop a conceptual model for military supply chain risk management based on theoretical insights and empirical evidence. To achieve this goal, a quantitative research design was employed using a structured questionnaire. The survey was administered to personnel across various branches of the Lithuanian Armed Forces, including the Defence Staff, Land Forces, Air Force, Navy, Logistics Command, Special Operations Forces, and other defence institutions. Respondents represented a range of positions from senior officers and managers to logistics specialists and technical staff with varying years of experience in supply chain-related roles. The collected data were analysed using the regression-based mediation approach to examine relationships among key variables, including organizational risk awareness, procedural maturity, technological application, leadership involvement, and resilience to disruptions. After checking for data validity, a total of 327 valid responses were analysed. The research results revealed that effective risk management in military supply chains depends on several critical factors: organizational culture toward risk, systematic assessment procedures, technological integration, and inter-organizational collaboration. Based on these findings, a conceptual model for risk management was developed, emphasizing proactive risk identification, continuous improvement, and adaptive capabilities to enhance supply chain resilience in the Lithuanian Armed Forces. The study contributes both theoretically and practically to the modernization of defence logistics management.

Keywords: Military supply chains, risk management, defence logistics, supply chain resilience, organizational risk culture, military personnel, regression-based mediation.