Earthquake and deterioration inclusive probabilistic life-cycle assessment (EDP-LCA) framework for existing unreinforced masonry buildings

This study proposes an earthquake and deterioration inclusive probabilistic life-cycle assessment (EDP-LCA) framework for existing unreinforced masonry (URM) buildings, explicitly accounting for seismic aging and material deterioration throughout the building's service life. The framework integrates robust earthquake selection based on the building exposure, nonlinear time-history analyses, and deterioration-dependent mechanical properties. A detailed macroelement model of a representative URM building is developed in OpenSees to capture variations in stiffness, strength, and energy dissipation capacity due to material degradation. The framework estimates the lifecycle embodied emissions and the additional environmental impacts associated with repair interv entions triggered by recurrent seismic events. A Monte Carlo simulation is employed to account for uncertainties related to material properties, seismic hazard, and deterioration. The study highlights that the gradual loss of mechanical properties and the resulting increase in structural fragility over time significantly affect the expected environmental impact, resilience, and remaining life of existing masonry structures. The results of this research aim to support performancebased maintenance and retrofit strategies that balance structural safety and sustainability in the long-term management of existing seismic vulnerable building stock.

Keywords: Life-cycle assessment (LCA), Unreinforced masonry (URM), Seismic deterioration, Monte Carlo simulation, Performance-based maintenance.