Integrating PLHA into a multi-hazard urban risk framework: Application to Aguablanca, Cali, Colombia

Multi-risk assessment for urban studies requires hazard models that account for cascading processes such as earthquake-induced soil liquefaction. Although several multi-risk frameworks have been proposed, their application at the urban scale is still constrained by the availability of high-resolution hazard inputs. This study presents the implementation of a probabilistic liquefaction hazard assessment (PLHA) for the Aguablanca District in Cali, Colombia, to provide a probabilistic hazard basis for future multi-vulnerability analyses. The study combines the national seismic hazard model with site-specific cone penetration test data to estimate the probability that a profile exhibits surface liquefaction manifestation (SLM) over a given exposure time. The results show predominantly moderate SLM severity over a 50 -year exposure period, whereas severe manifestations are expected under an earthquake scenario with a 475-year return period.

Keywords: Surface liquefaction manifestations, Probabilistic liquefaction hazard assessment, Seismic and liquefaction vulnerability, Multi-risk assessment, Cali-Colombia.