A framework for production availability studies for solar power

Production availability analysis has long been instrumental for evaluations of production system performance in the oil and gas sector, supported by standards such as ISO 20815 on production assurance and reliability management. As the technical committee responsible for standardization in the field of the oil and gas industry, the ISO/TC67 have expanded its scope to include lower-carbon energy systems, making the applicability of ISO 20815 to renewable energy sources - particularly solar power - increasingly relevant. The main objective of this paper is to discuss the applicability of ISO 20815 for production availability analyses of such energy sources, where it examines how the framework defined in this standard can be used for large-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants. Key differences identified include high component counts, nonlinear relationships between irradiance and power output, strong temporal variability in environmental drivers, and challenges associated with large-scale aggregation and multistate degradation. A modelling approach based on Monte Carlo simulation is demonstrated through a generic example system, showing how PV plant production availability can be meaningfully assessed using planned production (per ISO 20815) aligned with expected energy (per IEC 61724).

Keywords: Production availability, production assurance, solar power, Monte Carlo simulation, standardization, ISO 20815.