Identifying Risk Influencing Factors Related to Alternative Fuels in Winter Navigation

The maritime sector is urgently transitioning toward alternative marine fuels to mitigate climate change; however, the operational viability of these solutions in harsh environments remains a critical gap in current research. While these fuels show promise for global decarbonization, their adoption in ice-covered seas, such as the Finnish-Swedish winter navigation zone, is complicated by extreme environmental conditions. This study identifies the critical risk factors associated with Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), biofuels, methanol, hydrogen, ammonia, and nuclear power, under these specific winter navigation conditions. A systematic literature review is conducted using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) method to identify the risks associated with each energy carrier. Subsequently, principles of System-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) are applied to categorize these risks into scenario-based losses, accidents, hazards, and causal factors. The analysis reveals that the harsh winter environment acts as an active hazard multiplier, triggering emergent vulnerabilities that are absent in standard open-water operations. Consequently, the results suggest that, despite their potential, current alternative marine fuel solutions require targeted, region-specific safety adaptations before widespread deployment in the Northern Baltic Sea.

Keywords: Alternative fuels, winter navigation, PRISMA, safety, risk.