A Probabilistic Model for Evaluating Critical Maritime Infrastructure Security

Offshore infrastructures, including wind farms and subsea data and power cables, are expanding rapidly. These infrastructures face increasing threats from hybrid attacks by drones and vessels, as well as marine accidents. To support the evaluation of the vulnerability of offshore assets, we develop a model for maritime infrastructure protection analysis. The model seeks to determine the probability that a defender can intervene fast enough to prevent an attack against an offshore asset such as an infrastructure by regarding various parameters. For the computation, a Monte Carlo simulation is employed, enabling the exploration of diverse settings and conditions and producing an overall security assessment based on specific yet adjustable probability distributions to capture uncertainties that are inherent in maritime security analysis. We illustrate the model by analyzing the protection level of an offshore wind farm off the German coast, incorporating varying capability distributions for attackers and defenders. Results indicate that the model generates methodologically sound estimates of offshore protection levels and to identify and calculate factors that can enhance protection effectiveness, such as expanding the detection range, reducing reaction times, deploying faster intervention units, or stationing them closer to offshore assets. Finally, we discuss the major strengths and limitations of the model compared to other approaches and propose avenues for future research in maritime security analysis.

Keywords: Infrastructure Protection, Offshore Infrastructures, Vulnerability Assessment, Protection level, Probabilistic Model, Monte Carlo Simulation.