Threats based on civil airborne Drones: Developing and analyzing Scenarios for Ports

Ports play a central role in global trade and energy supply, making them critical nodes of modern infrastructure. Yet port operations are increasingly threatened by drones, causing major disruptions with potentially severe economic damages and consequences. This paper discusses the development and analysis of threat scenarios to study the impact of civilian drone misuse in ports. The derived scenario framework considers multiple parameters such as drone payload capacity, flight range, attack type and tactical conditions. These parameters are first defined and characterized and then combined into plausible threat scenarios. The methodological approach is based on a morphological box, which enables the systematic combination of parameter variations to form realistic and diverse attack scenarios. Subsequently, the generated scenarios are evaluated through a structured assessment process. The analysis identifies ports assets that represent particularly attractive targets from an attacker's perspective and derives correlations between drone capabilities, environmental conditions and asset vulnerability. The scenario mapping analysis shows the need for integrated drone countermeasures based on technical, operational and personal measures. Furthermore, the paper outlines potential countermeasures, including the evaluation of existing defense technologies and the development of criteria for safe and effective interception. The paper provides guidance for infrastructure operators to better protect their assets against civilian airborne drone attack, including non-technical defense approaches.

Keywords: Drones, Threat Scenarios, Ports, Critical Infrastructure, Vulnerability.