Dynamic Assessment of Maritime Cybersecurity Risk: A System Dynamics Approach

This study develops a socio-technical system dynamics(SD) model for dynamic cybersecurity risk assessment of autonomous vessel navigation systems under GNSS spoofing threats. Cybersecurity risk in this context is inherently socio-technical, emerging from the interaction between technical navigation vulnerabilities, human-in-the-loop operational behavior, organizational investment decisions, and recovery processes. The proposed model represents an integrated ship-shore system and conceptualizes cybersecurity risk as an evolving system behavior shaped by feedback loops. By explicitly modeling feedback,time delays, and capacity limits, the framework moves beyond static probability-consequence approaches commonly used in maritime cybersecurity assessment. The developed model was assessed for plausibility using standard SD validation approach. The model is then used to simulate alternative cybersecurity management strategies to examine how cyber risk evolves under contrasting policy choices. Simulation results highlight non-linear risk responses, in which successful attacks and associated losses change over time as system conditions and management action interact. By operationalizing cybersecurity risk as scenario, consequences and occurrence, the study offers a feedback-driven decision-support framework for autonomous vessel.

Keywords: Maritime Cybersecurity, System Dynamics, Socio-Technical Modeling, Risk Analysis, Cyber Risk.