Proceedings of the
European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL2026)
14 – 19 June 2026, Braga, Portugal

Sensitivity and uncertainty propagation analysis of RC beams shear strength using polynomial chaos expansion method.

Marcin Koniorczyk

Department of Concrete Structures, Lodz University of technology, Poland.

marcin.koniorczyk@p.lodz.pl

Damian Szczech

Department of Concrete Structures, Lodz University of technology, Poland.

damian.szczech@p.lodz.pl

Janusz Rogowski

Department of Concrete Structures, Lodz University of Technology, Poland.

janusz.rogowski@p.lodz.pl

ABSTRACT

In the paper, a shear strength probabilistic assessment of concrete beams reinforced with steel bars is performed. The shear strength is analyzed by modelling two approaches. One is the low-fidelity models, which are analytical formulas based on the fracture mechanics and semi-empirical mechanicsbased mode. The other is based on the numerical simulations performed using the advanced software (Atena) based on non-linear mechanics principles. The aim of the analysis is to perform the uncertainty propagation, sensitivity analysis and model uncertainty assessment. The stochastic analysis is made using polynomial chaos expansion method. The application of this method and the analysis of its performance is the main novelty introduced in the paper.

Keywords: RC beams, shear strength, stochastic analysis, structural safety, polynomial chaos expansion, Sobol's indices, probability density function.



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